The Hurricanes are coming! (The Hurricanes are coming?)

The Hurricanes are coming! The Hurricanes are coming! The reincarnation of Paul Revere has ridden through Savannah this week threatening hurricane-force doom and gloom, demanding swift response. Sure, there is a storm a-brewin’. But does it really warrant all this hoopla?

Having recently been schooled on meteorology and hurricane history for my article (ahem) in the June/July “Bad” Issue of The South Magazine, and having grown up in south Florida, I like to think I’m am aware of the dangers of tropical weather events. I take them very seriously, but – quite frankly – I ain’t skeered. At least not of Hanna.

Per the article…

“The likelihood of a direct hit by a big storm is very, very small,” asserts resident meteorologist for WTOC Patrick Prokop. And, according to Prokop, that has much to do with our geography. “We are about the furthest point west on the East Coast,” he explains. “We are located in somewhat of a cove. Hurricanes traveling from south to north will largely miss us.” These storms will skirt the Savannah area on average once every three and a half years, with their most significant impacts sustained along the coast of the Carolinas or further northward.

Hanna’s just a little ol’ tropical storm at this point, capable of producing some still much-needed rainfall for our region and, sure, some wind. I sincerely appreciate that my neighbors got together on Sunday, amid unfounded rumors that Home Depot was already out of plywood, to purchase flats from Guerry Lumber in the event that we needed to board up our homes pre-evacuation. As Sonny Perdue reasons (to defend why I can’t buy booze on Sunday), it’s a good for folks to think ahead.

That said (and God may strike me down with a nice lightning-bolt to the contrary) I tend to think folks, my mother included, have gone a bit overboard in reaction to the week-out threat of a storm. My beloved neighbors are from California. What do they know of hurricanes aside from the beleaguered images of Katrina’s wake – enough to scare anyone into buying enough plywood to encapsulate your entire house, if not only to ward off storm damage but to also discourage post-traumatic looting?

Don’t get me wrong, I do think it’s important for people to be prepared and be smart, but at some point this week Savannah started to remind me of a run on the bank or on the gas station. More dramatic, less productive.

My bets are that we get some rain and flooding in the usual spots (i.e., Lake Harmon). I further contend – and I happen to know Fitz disagrees with me – that at least part of Savannah looses power. I have lost power consistently during lesser storms. Okay, and I’ll even concede that some trees drop branches. But that’s the extent of my predicted devastation. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for Charleston, for good measure.

I won’t be so brash as to omit some important information to consider as Hanna cruises by and our focus turns to Ike (it just sounds mean, doesn’t it?).

The difference between catastrophe and a near miss hinges on three factors: direction of the storm, the point in the tide cycle when it hits, and how long it decides to linger.

Direction of the storm: The south to north storm direction results in an almost certain miss of Savannah. The more dramatic southeast to northwest route is cause for alarm because that storm has almost 100 miles from the continental shelf to our coastline to intensify, compliments of warmer, shallower water.

The point in the tide when it hits: Our heightened tide and expansive tidal range contribute greatly to increased storm surges. The same storm that washes ashore on Wilmington, North Carolina meets with a five-foot tide, whereas the storm is presented with a nine-foot tide at Tybee.

How long it decides to linger: The longer a storm churns overhead, the greater risk of flooding and wind damage. Recall how long Fay hung out over the east coast of Florida? Long enough to inundate those communities with more rainwater than their infrastructure could manage.

On a happier note, I will throw in my green pitch (you knew I would).

Did you know that Georgia has an impressive expanse of relatively unspoiled coastal marshlands which act as a tremendous buffer to storm swells? They may account for some of the best and most cost-effective defenses we have against major flooding. According to Chuck Watson, “Storm waves hit the coastal wetlands and just die.”

I’ll close with parting words from Chuck Watson, hurricane expert and Director of Research and Development for Kinetic Analysis Corporation.

“If you’re going to have a natural disaster,” says Watson, “it’s best to have a hurricane because you can see it coming.”

Check out the article “Forces of Nature” (shameless plug) in the June/July issues of The South Magazine for more information on Savannah’s hurricane history, regional meteorological conditions that affect or placate the threat of a direct hit, and what you can do to prepare for the “big one.” (Ike?).

For additional information on hurricane preparedness, visit the Chatham Emergency Management Agency website at www.cema.chathamcounty.org/hurricane.